Republican trouble ahead?

Jay Cost writing on RealClearPolitics challenges the conventional wisdom that Republicans are headed for major losses this November. This is just a sample you should go and read the whole thing.

Hat tip: The American Thinker

First, even if the Democrats could rally around a set of issues, they could not take the House. The national trends do not favor it. The economy is too strong and Bush is not sufficiently unpopular. Democrats are not capable of making Bush more unpopular, and certainly not interested in weakening the economy. Further, the number of open seats does not favor it. 95% of House incumbents are running again, and the reelection rate of incumbents in the last three cycles has averaged 99%. Democrats cannot undo what is one of the most important, yet least appreciated, secular trends in American politics: the movement toward perfect incumbent retention. Further, the tight alignment of the lectorate does not favor it. 93% of Republican members of Congress are in districts Bush won. What kind of issues could the Democrats put forward that could win red districts without losing blue districts?