South of the border

From The Washington Post:

MEXICO CITY, July 2 -- Andrés Manuel López Obrador and Felipe Calderón each claimed victory in Mexico's presidential election late Sunday night, even though the country's electoral commission said the race was so close it might not be able to announce the winner until Wednesday.

The dramatic announcements by López Obrador and Calderón shortly before midnight in Mexico City set up what is sure to be a furiously emotional battle over voting results in a nation that had spent tens of millions of dollars to ensure a fair and efficient election. Both candidates appeared on national television within minutes after Luis Carlos Ugalde, the head of the Federal Electoral Institute, announced that the difference between the two "was too narrow" for him to call the race.

My gut tells me that Obrador won the popular vote but that the Mexican establishment is going to do everything possible to keep from admitting it.

This could lead to a Mexican civil war. On the down side, from the American perspective, this could drive a large number of refugees north. We will need to do more than send a few hundred unarmed National Guardsmen to the border to keep them out of the US. Of course the President and his allies in the open borders movement will use the "humanitarian" argument that we need to let in a few million more illiterate peasants (and fast track them to citizenship). Conservatives will need to be ready to apply titanic pressure on their congresscreatures to keep this from happening.

I have no problem with sending food and medical supplies, even entire field hospitals to locations just across the border, along with regular Army or Marines to protect them, but under no circumstances should any Mexican be allowed to set one foot north of the border. It will be nearly impossible to get rid of them if they are allowed into the country.

On the positive side for the US a Mexican civil war will likely consume large numbers of Mexicans who will therefore become unable to head north of the border.