Don't beat those swords into plowshares just yet

The Washington Post reports the following:

BEIRUT, Aug. 15 -- Hezbollah refused to disarm and withdraw its fighters from the battle-scarred hills along the border with Israel on Tuesday, threatening to delay deployment of the Lebanese army and endangering a fragile cease-fire.

The makings of a compromise emerged from all-day meetings in Beirut, according to senior officials involved in the negotiations, and Prime Minister Fouad Siniora scheduled a cabinet session Wednesday for what he hoped would be formal approval of the deal. Hezbollah indicated it would be willing to pull back its fighters and weapons in exchange for a promise from the army not to probe too carefully for underground bunkers and weapons caches, the officials said.

The cease-fire is already crumbling. Israeli Prime Minister Olmert is in deep trouble with his constituents for his bungling of the war against Hezbollah and is looking for a way to rescue his reputation.

The announcement by the French that the international peacekeeping force would not attempt to disarm Hezbollah, coupled with the Lebanese Prime Minister’s statement that the Lebanese Army would not attempt to disarm Hezbollah, joined to Hezbollah’s statement that they would only withdraw from the area if the Lebanese Army didn’t make any but the most token of efforts to uncover their weapons caches has halted the IDF withdrawal from Southern Lebanon.

I think that it would only take one more nudge to get Olmert to restart the war and this time to do it properly. Meaning that he would commit enough ground troops backed up by the right kind of air campaign to get the job of destroying Hezbollah done.

I believe that the Bush Administration was behind Israel’s effort to destroy Hezbollah 100% and was willing to use its Security Counsel veto to run interference for Israel so that they would have the time to complete the job.

Olmert’s refusal to listen to his generals and his determination to wage a “Bill Clinton” style war (one in which attempts to avoid casualties are so extreme that victory becomes impossible) made the President realize that the only way to avoid a complete debacle in terms of world and American public opinion was to hammer out a cease-fire which would allow the Israelis to claim victory and get out.

Recent events would seem to be conspiring to give the Israelis another chance. Let’s hope they take advantage of it.