Changing seasons

Thomas Lifson has an interesting essay up on The American Thinker about the changing political season:

Contemporary American politics has two seasons, not four. Life is very different for politicians, the public and the media in the two respective seasons, and the ebb and flow of power operate in very distinct modalities in them. Unless we are clear about the season in which we operate, it is very easy to draw mistaken conclusions about where American politics are taking us.

I do not refer to election year politics and off-year politics, though that distinction is related to the underlying phenomenon of which I write. The key to uderstanding the dynamics of American politics is the question of the public’s level of attention. During Attention Season, a substantial slice of the voting public pays heed to aguments and actively relates political ideas to their own lives. They think about cause-and-effect and evaluate policies and proposals advocated by various parties and politicians in terms of the potential impact on their lives.

Normally, forthcoming elections, especially presidential contests, cause a fraction of the public to pay closer than normal attention. So election season is normally Attention Season. This is why Republicans tend to increase their support in generic polls about political preferences as elections approach. If one looked at off-year polling about party preferences, one would expect Congress to be in the hands of Democrats. But as political advertising reaches its peak prior to election day, Republicans tend to gain support, as a critical fraction makes up its mind at the last minute and pays attention to political arguments.

But Attention Season is not limited to election years. A crisis, sch as 9/11, can focus Americans even in an off year. Nevertheless, Attention Season is a fleeting mment. Unless there is a special reason, most Americans do not really want to pay much attention to politics. They have far more important matters to attend to: their own lives. Outside a small percentage of political junkies in the populace, mostly those committed to one or another political viewpoint, most Americans perceive only headlines, sound bytes, images, and vague impressions of politicians, parties and issues.

Inattention Season, the norm of American politics is now turning into Attention Season. Once the World Series is over, we will be in the peak of Attention Season. This year, with the prospect of a turnover of control in Congress, it will be prticularly inetnse for an off-year election.

The default mode of Inattention Season strongly favors the Democrats. The overwhelmingly liberal media exercise their power in both blatant and subtle ways to convey a warm and fuzzy impression of Democrats. Photo editors at daily newspapers play a key role, selecting scowling pictures of Republicans and smiling pictures of Democrats, for instance. All of the television news outlets except Fox look for sound bites and visuals to reinforce a positive impression of Democrats whenever possible, and portray Republicans as mean, bigoted, white, male, awkward and stupid.

Only talk radio, among all media, favors conservatism. With its long form interactive discussions, talk radio allows ideas to be tested, illustrated, and critiqued. Thus, Democrats have not had much success with it and have, in fact, mostly invested their hope in demonizing talk radio to those who don’t listen to it.

[Snip]

So, for conservatives and Republicans, forcing people to pay attention has become the key factor for political success. It is not easy, though. Most people regard politicians with suspicion, and would much rather follow the playoffs in college or professional sports, the love lives of celebrities, or the doings of friends and relatives than political discourse. “Leave us alone” is a familiar feeling, even for conservatives confronting politics.

But the importance of the Global War on Terror, once and only once tellingly called the war on “Islamic Fascism” by the President, deamnds attention. The anniversary of 9/11 next Monday will bring back a surge of interest and emotion in the general public.

The Democrats appear to be falling into the trap of listening too much to own extremist base, just as the President has tossed the ball into Congress’s court with his request for Congressional modifications to the FISA process to explicitly permit the kind of telecommunications monitoring common sense dictates we conduct to prevent future 9/11s.

During Inattention Season, the noisy base commands by default, and its excesses are not much noticed. But the seasons are changing, and like Katie Couric wearing white on her post-Labor Day Evening News debut, the Democrats are not keeping up with the change.

I agree with this. I can remember so many elections when the media was confidently predicting Democrat victory only to have it pulled out from under them.

I also remember the night of the big Republican takeover of congress when Dan Rather seemed about to break down in tears.

That was a good night.