The next Arab/Israeli war

James P. McConalogue writes an interesting essay in The Brussels Journal today about the possibility of an Israel/Iran war:

On 3rd September, London's Sunday Times speculated that Israel has been planning a war against Iran and Syria, following the recent bout of conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. The report made a serious and viable claim on Israeli military strategy: "The conflict with Hezbollah has led to a strategic rethink in Israel. A key conclusion is that too much attention has been paid to Palestinian militants in Gaza and the West Bank instead of the two biggest state sponsors of terrorism in the region, who pose a far greater danger to Israel's existencdefensence insider's say."

A number of insiders in the Isrdefensefence establishment clarified the importance of their plan: the significance of Iran and Syria to the Isrdefensefence force is now above concerns for the Palestinian territories, Iran's developed nuclear programme represents a heightened threat to Israel, the recent Tehran military pact signed between Syria and Iran in June to defend against Israeli threats is another direct regional threat to Israel, and there has been an ongoing alignment of Hezbollah and Iranian military interests to work together against Israel should the US attempt to intervene in the region. Although I tend to agree with the Times report, and believe that Israel is on the brink of another 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the article was based on a few emaciated bones of contention, which need to be properly fleshed out.

Go read the rest.

I agree with him that it is in Israel's interest to take out the Iranian regime and that the US can and should help in that effort. However I do not share his confidence that Europe will approve of the action, at least not overtly.

The nations of the EU are facing the prospects of a soon coming Muslim majority within their own borders. They already have a large restive Muslim minority which has proven itself capable of violence. They are utterly dependent (except for the UK) on Middle Eastern petroleum and many of their leaders have shown themselves capable of selling their souls to Islamic dictators for large bribes.

All of these factors argue strongly against either any direct European involvement in any war against a Middle Eastern nation or even any vocal support for such a war. While it is possible, perhaps even likely, that there will be back channel messages of support the overt stand of the EU will almost certainly be to condemn any US and/or Israeli action of this kind.

Keep in mind the way that Europe is currently refusing to allow US cargo planes carrying military supplies to Israel to land and refuel in European territory. This attitude of appeasement toward the Islamofascists is not going to change until and unless there is a major strike from an Islamic nation against a European target. And even then it might only lead to more groveling and surrender.