There is a rapidly developing "conventional wisdom" that the Foley scandal will harm Republican electoral chances this November. Slime ball political hired gun Dick Morris has waffled back to that position and is even predicting a Hillary win in '08. However some of the polling data from Foley's home district makes me wonder:
Mahoney(D) 49%, Foley(R) 46%
- respondents informed that Foley votes will go to another GOP candidate.
Mahoney(D) 50%, Foley(R) 43%
- no explanation given
This is strange. When folks think that they can vote to reelect Foley 3% more will vote Republican than when they are told that a Foley vote means a vote for another Republican.
There is a significant subset of the Gay community who worship at the alter of the "Beautiful Boy". Perhaps a great many of them live in Foley's district and recognize a fellow traveler in him.
Polling data from Election Projection - 2006 Edition.
In the end I think that the conventional wisdom about Foley's impact on the elections will prove as wrong as most conventional wisdom. If fact it could wind up backfiring on them. If they keep up the hysteria the whole mess could turn into another "Wellstone Memorial".
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