Rudy's pipe dream

From The Washington Post:

NEW YORK, Dec. 18 -- His national poll numbers are a dream, he's a major box office draw on the Republican Party circuit, and he goes by the shorthand title "America's Mayor." All of which has former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani convinced he just might become America's president in 2008.

He is showing the early signs of a serious candidacy: Giuliani's presidential exploratory committee throws its first major fundraiser in a hotel near Times Square on Tuesday evening, and he recently hired the political director of the Republican National Committee during 2006. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released last week found that Republicans give Giuliani an early lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona, who is far ahead of the former mayor in organizing a national campaign.

Despite that lead, conservative party strategists and activists in key primary states are skeptical and warn that the socially liberal Republican faces a difficult campaign. They question whether a Republican who has had one marriage end in annulment and another in divorce, and favors abortion rights, gun control and immigrant rights, has much retail appeal in the evangelical and deeply conservative reaches of the GOP.

The major silver lining in the dark cloud of last November's elections were the number of RINOs which were slain at the polls.

Giuliani had an opportunity to distance himself from his extreme left-wing social positions by ascribing them to the necessity of running for office in a liberal bastion like New York City. He could have convincingly explained that when he lifted his eyes from the socialist cesspool of Manhattan and surveyed the rest of the nation that many things became clear to him.

He has largely thrown that opportunity away by digging in his heels and reaffirming his support for partial-birth abortion and civilian disarmament (gun control). He is hoping that his hawkish stance on national security and tax cuts will overshadow his left-wing social views.

He is in error. Most conservatives are wise enough to realize that while nothing else ultimately matters if you don't defend the country that defending a country that isn't worth living in is not worth the effort. The fact that Rudy also favors amnesty and an open borders policy for the alien criminals is another nail in his political coffin.

If Rudy were the only person on the Republican side who cared about the war in Iraq or terrorism or tax cuts then he might have a chance. However Giuliani's views on taxes, the war and crime are not unique in the Republican Party. In a race between a primary candidate who agrees with them all the time and a candidate who agrees with them half the time the great majority of Republican primary voters will pick the candidate that agrees with them all the time.

The largest single voting bloc in the Republican Party are the social conservatives, most of them religious. The winning strategy for the Republican Party in 2008 is to find a social conservative who is attractive and a good communicator who can make his case to moderate and conservative Democrats. This should not be difficult.

The results of the recent election give conservatives good reason to hope. Liberal Republicans lost big and conservative Democrats won big. Other reasons to be hopeful: Almost every state in the Union has adopted "shall issue" laws for concealed handgun permits. More Americans favor restricting the abortion today than at any point since the Supreme Court handed down Roe v Wade. Joe Lieberman's victory in Connecticut demonstrates that all else being equal a pro-war stance does not harm a candidate.

Genuine conservatives are well positioned for 2008 - provided they keep their heads and avoid liberal RINOs like Rudolph Giuliani and John McCain.