Violent crime-infested . . . Europe

Ernest Baert read Fjordman's post on rape rates in Europe and was inspired to look into international crime statistics. He posted his conclusions on The Brussels Journal today. It seems that the best data is that compiled by Interpol, however Interpol has removed its crime statistics from its website. It seems that the nations of Europe do not want their citizens (or subjects as the case may be) to know certain uncomfortable facts.

Facts like these:

In the latest published ICVS, the percentage of the population which claims a personal experience of crime (excluding murder) during the preceding twelve months is higher in all countries than official statistics would lead one to assume : ranging from 16.4% in Norway to 31.5% in the Netherlands. The US (24.2%) and Canada (25.2%) are both average.

According to ICVS, overall crime rates are the highest Commonwealth (Australia, New Zealand, England) followed by northern European protestant countries (Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, but with Norway a clear exception), whilst the “safer” countries tend to be more Catholic/Latin/Southern European, such as Austria, Italy, Belgium and, yes, Northern Ireland (as mentioned above, murders are not covered by ICVS…). Note that the bulk of these crime rates are relatively minor crime.

The US is average in terms of overall experienced crime rates (ICVS), but for the most violent crime, murder, has the highest rates in absolute terms (Interpol), 5.6 per 100,000 inhabitants per year, vs. 4.1 in France for example, although the gap is rapidly shrinking and smaller than most people think.

Overall experienced crime rates are rising in most countries, for instance with violent crimes like Assault tripling in England and doubling in France during the nineties (ICVS). The US is one of the few exceptions to this trend, In fact, Interpol statistics show sharply reduced murder rates in the US (albeit from a high level). Among the five most violent crime categories in the Interpol statistics : (i) murder, (ii) serious assault, (iii) aggravated theft, (iv) robbery and (v) car theft, France had already overtaken the US by 2002 for the last three crimes, and looked like overtaking the US by 2004 for murder and assault as well. According to Interpol, England had fewer murders, assaults and robbery than France, but was also rapidly converging with the US. (Teaser, which Interpol member states had most to hide under continued publication of Interpol comparative statistics, the US or EU countries like France ?)

A lot has been written about the large decline in US crime rates in the last 2 decades and as usual different and sometimes conflicting explanations have been given, including : (i) the declining birth rate (in part, because of high abortion rates), leading to fewer young males around, (ii) better policing methods and the so-called zero-tolerance approach (and there seems to be some indication of a correlation between different policing methods in US cities and the change in local crime rates), and (iii) the very high incarceration rates in the US (i.e. the more people you lock up, the less crime is committed outside the prison walls). If one assumes each of these three factors has had an impact on falling US crime rates, then the conclusion seems to be that for Europe, where birth rates have fallen even more than the US, but violent crime has risen fast over the last two decades, there must be something seriously amiss with policing and incarceration policies in Europe.

Reporting rates, i.e. the percentage of experienced crime actually reported to police varies significantly across borders : for instance, for Assault, more than 40% of cases are reported in the Anglo-Saxon countries - where the incidence is relatively high - and in Belgium, and less than 25% in Germany, Austria and Italy). But reporting rates varies even more depending on the type of crime : almost in all countries, more than 90% of all car thefts are reported, but reporting rates for Assault and Robbery, far more violent and unpleasant experiences are typically only half those of car thefts. For Sexual Offenses the reporting rates suggest that police reports only represent the tip of an iceberg. The fact that many car owners have theft insurance makes them obviously more likely to report a theft, because with cover there is near certainty of compensation for the victim. But the low reporting rates for other crimes may illustrate why so many ordinary people treat the conclusions of official crime statistics with a pinch of salt, despite being told by the elites that all is well and this feeling of insecurity is an imagination. New York was an unsafe city twenty years ago, but was one of the first to try the zero tolerance approach, with good results. New York threw over board its tradition of turning a blind eye to so much crime because there were no liberals left anymore : they had all been mugged (if not worse…).

You see it seems that the United States is not the crime-ridden cesspool compared to Europe that most Europeans (and US elites) believe it to be. It would seem that in most kinds of crime Europe is very close to surpassing or has already surpassed America.

Even in the category of murder, where the US still leads, the difference was never that great and the gap is rapidly closing.

Mr. Baert mentions difference in birthrates, policing philosophy and incarceration rates between the US and Europe. He discounts birthrate as a factor because Europe's is lower than ours. The difference would seem to be found in Americas embrace of zero-tolerance policing and our willingness to lock up criminals.

Another factor that Mr. Baert doesn't cover is the difference in firearms ownership rates and the different legal philosophy regarding firearms in the US and Europe. Sarah Brady and her crowd would have us believe that the comparatively easy access to guns and the high rate of civilian firearms ownership in the US contribute to the violence of our society. Yet it seems that in some ways we are less violent than Europe and that even in the areas where we lead them they are catching up quickly.

This is despite the fact that firearms have recently become even more accessible with the sunsetting of the Brady Law and the rapid spread of "shall issue" concealed carry laws across the nation.

In fact a good argument could be made that Americans' access to firearms (the most efficient means of self defense) are a factor in the very good showing we make in this international comparison.

Of course this will have no affect on the Brady Bunch. What motivates them is not a desire to control crime. What animates the gun control activists (almost all of them left-liberals) is a pure hatred toward and fear of people who like guns.