Looking at the polls

From The Washington Post:

The opening stages of the campaign for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination have produced a noticeable shift in sentiment among African American voters, who little more than a month ago heavily supported Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton but now favor the candidacy of Sen. Barack Obama.

Clinton, of New York, continues to lead Obama and other rivals in the Democratic contest, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. But her once-sizable margin over the freshman senator from Illinois was sliced in half during the past month largely because of Obama's growing support among black voters.

In the Republican race, former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, who recently made clear his intentions to seek the presidency, has expanded his lead over Sen. John McCain of Arizona. Giuliani holds a 2 to 1 advantage over McCain among Republicans, according to the poll, more than tripling his margin of a month ago.

The principal reason was a shift among white evangelical Protestants, who now clearly favor Giuliani over McCain. Giuliani is doing well among this group of Americans despite his support of abortion rights and gay rights, two issues of great importance to religious conservatives. McCain opposes abortion rights.

This is interesting. The thing about phony "leaders" is that they always have their moistened fingers stuck in the wind to see where the public is going so that they can run very fast in that direction so that they appear to be out front "leading". This describes the black "leadership" on the left; men like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson and organizations like the NAACP who are good at figuring out where the mob wants to go and then offering to take them there.

If the black population is turning to Obama then the "leadership" will soon get out in front and start marching lockstep with him as well.

The only reason they haven't done so already is the fear that he can't win and the certain knowledge of Hillary's retribution if she attains the White House without them. Well, that and the fact that they know that if Democrats can start winning the White House without black support that their place at the Democrat Table O'Power is history.

After all if you were a Democrat politician would you bow at the feet of a thing like Al Sharpton if you didn't absolutely have to?

But if a (left-liberal) black man actually got himself elected president that would mean that blacks had become more than necessary players in the Democrat coalition. It would mean that they had become senior partners!

This is the dilemma of the black "leadership". Hillary still looks like the safe bet but if they support her and Obama wins they are shown to be irrelevant. Rank and file blacks could start thinking for themselves and that would mean the end of the gravy train for the "leaders". However if they support Obama and Hillary wins the closest they are ever going to get to the Table O'Power again is when they empty the ashtrays and fill the water glasses.

As for evangelicals turning to Rudy it isn't difficult to understand. Rudy is, or at least appears to be honest.

Romney's switches on abortion are just too conviniently timed to aid his political ambitions. McCain is a backstabber who says one thing to the voters back home and another when he's on Meet The Press. He insults Christians and then kisses up to Christians. Nobody believes him any more.

Rudy, on the other hand, is pro abortion and pro special rights for gays and is currently running out the clock on his third marriage, but he isn't trying to hide any of this. His honesty in owning his unpopular positions gives credibility to his promises to appoint originalist judges to the Supreme Court. His history of taking on public sector unions and cutting taxes and controlling spending make him attractive to people who realize that maintaining America's prosperity depends on keeping taxes down and controlling government growth.

His management of New York's affairs speaks of a good administrator and his response to 9/11 reveal a man possessing personal courage and give him good personal reasons to hate and fear Islamofascism. His treatment of Castro shows a man who will do the right thing even world opinion demands that he do the wrong thing.

To sum up most Republicans, the religious right included, feel that he is the best we are going to be able to do this time around. This could change, but right at this minute he is the best person in the race with a realistic chance to win.

His is not a conservative, but with a conservative congress, the thinking goes, he would be unable to do much to enact gun control or bring about nationwide gay marriage so he is worth the risk. Especially when the alternative is Hillary.

All he needs to do now is find a real conservative, preferably from the South, to be his running mate.