Is Hillary in trouble?

From Front Page Magazine:

Why did Hillary's pet attack dog Howard Wolfson attack Barack Obama? Was it:

(a) Bill's anger at having his presidential record scrutinized
(b) A concentrated effort to lure Obama into a mud fight
(c) A desire to move attention away from her refusal to apologize for backing the Iraq War

Now the answer emerges. It was:

(d) Because Barack Obama is surging in the polls.

The Washington Post reports that Obama has gone from an anemic 17 percent of the vote among Democratic primary electorate to a more robust 24 percent, while the former First Lady dropped from 41 percent to 36 percent. (Edwards, going no place fast, was mired at 14 percent in third place). So the Post has Hillary's lead cut in half from 24 percent to 12 percent.

Pollster John Zogby finds a similar trend in a February 22-24 poll with Obama surging from 14 percent to 25 percent in two weeks during which time he has Hillary gaining only 4 points from 29 percent to 33 percent. Again, Edwards runs third at 12 percent.

When you are dropping in the polls, what do you do?

(a) You attack your opponent

Or

(b) If you have a reputation for slash and burn politics like Hillary, you accuse him of attacking you

Hillary's effort to hit Obama with the charge of negative campaigning reflected the Illinois Senator's move up in the polls, a trend her pollsters doubtless caught early in the daily national tracking surveys they are taking.

All this leaves Edwards in a bit of a quandary. Animated by their status as the first woman and the first black to run seriously for the presidency, Hillary and Obama are making the contest for the Democratic nomination an increasingly two-sided affair as Edwards fails to gather momentum.

Interestingly, the Washington Post reports that most of Obama's gains came from African American voters who has lately sided with Hillary, in their January polling by 60-20. Now Obama has turned that around and leads among blacks by 44-33. Of course, 44 percent is a far cry from the 85 percent of the black vote he will need to win, but it's quite a turnaround in the past month.

If it seems early to be focusing on the ups and downs of national polling, consider the expedited calendar for pursuit of the nominations this year and next. Nineteen states, with half of America's population, have moved or are moving their primaries up to February 5, 2008, barely three weeks after the Iowa caucuses and two after the New Hampshire primary. Among these states are California, Florida, Illinois, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina and Georgia.

The effect will be to choose a nominee within a three-week window in the first days of 2008. To be able to mount a campaign in at least half the country by February 5, 2008, a candidate will have to amass a huge war chest in 2007. Anybody who does not have a huge bank account, perhaps as much as $100 million by January of 2008 isn't going to win the nomination.

This steep fund raising curve makes it imperative to be the front-runner in the fall of 2006. Only the leader in each party's pack of candidates will be able to make the financial cut. Edwards needs to move up to be viable, while Obama seems en route to making it a real two-way race.
On the Republican side, the Washington Post has Rudy Giuliani adding to his formidable lead over the fading John McCain, leading 44-21 with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 15 percent and Mitt Romney, whose campaign appears doomed, at 4 percent. Rudy had been nursing only a 34-27 lead over McCain last month.

If Rudy continues his current lead, he will be unstoppable, especially in view of the expedited primary calendar. And if Obama keeps up his momentum, it will be an interesting battle between the first woman and the first black for the Democratic nomination.

As I have said before there is still time for a real conservative to step forward, but that time grows short.

Unless a great much changes the Republican ticket will have Rudolph Giuliani at its head and most likely Newt Gingrich in the VP spot. Rudy is not a conservative, but he seems to realize that he cannot win without conservative support and he seems both willing to earn it and unwilling to lie to get it. These are good signs. Contrast Rudy's dominance in the polls to Mitt Romney's free fall. Romney's "epiphanies" on abortion, the move to pro-choice when he sought the governor's mansion in ultra-Massachusetts then the move back to pro-life when he wants the Republican nomination, are both just too damn convenient.

Conservatives will excuse someone who disagrees with them on some issues, but not someone who lies to them. In this they are the polar opposites of the liberals, who don't mind dishonesty as long as you march in ideological lockstep.

Right now it is not possible to predict with absolute certainty who will get the Democrat nomination. Hillary seems the safe bet still, but there are signs that this could change. The popularity of B. Hussein Obama among so many of the media and Hollywood elite is an indication less of his appeal than of Hillary's lack of appeal. The fact is that when you bully and browbeat and terrorise people they will do as you command, but they will never love you. And when they see a chance to bring you down they will take it.

The fact that those within her own party have challenged Hillary and lived (so far) has sent a message to everyone else in that party that she may not be the 800 lb. gorilla that everyone has assumed her to be. There is a deep fear among Democrat Party power brokers that Hillary cannot win. Her favorable rating is not above 50% and what else is there for anyone to learn about her that can change their minds?

If more than half the people have already made up their minds that they don't like her this doesn't bode well for her performance in the general election. The only thing that has kept the party from dumping her the way they jettisoned Dean is the fear of retribution. Well Obama has jammed his thumb into her eye all the way down to the knuckle and he's still standing (so far).

This is why I half expect him to die in a single car accident or drown while swimming alone or commit suicide in Fort Marcy Park before the end of the Summer.