Sunday, August 12, 2007

Is Hillary's lead all hype? I don't think so.

Bob Novak tells us:

Democratic insiders who are not neutral in the presidential race do not take seriously the USA Today/Gallup poll of Democratic voters showing Sen. Hillary Clinton 23 percentage points ahead of Sen. Barack Obama. They contend national surveys are meaningless because outcomes of the early state contests are still critical.

State polls show a virtual three-way tie among Clinton, Obama and former Sen. John Edwards in Iowa's early caucuses. Clinton has only a narrow lead over Obama in New Hampshire's opening primary. Obama has moved slightly ahead in the latest survey for South Carolina, the next primary state.

A footnote: Mitt Romney collects only 6 percent in the USA Today/Gallup national poll of Republicans but leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The phrase "Democratic insiders who are not neutral in the presidential race" tells you everything you need to know. All of the talk of Hillary's lead being misleading is just so much whistling past the graveyard.

Of course it would please me greatly if she did suffer a meltdown and come in around third in the final primary score. This would be wonderful for two reasons.

One it would mean someone much less electable than Hillary would be facing Thompson in November, virtually guaranteeing his election. Two it would utterly destroy Bill Clinton.

Bill Clinton regards putting Hillary in the White House as the only way to erase his impeachment and establish a positive legacy for himself. To a man with no center of his own, who experiences his own life through the eyes of others this is a matter of supreme importance.

This issue affects someone whose only source of self worth is the validation which he receives from others far more deeply than any normal person can appreciate. Right now Bill Clinton's entire life is centered around a return to the White House. If he is denied that it could literally push him over the edge into massive self destructive behavior, even suicide.

And if that's not a reason to keep Hillary out of the White House I don't know what one would be.