Monday, January 07, 2008

The latest polling results

Here's the dope on the Rasmussen Reports data on Mrs. Bill Clinton's national poll numbers collapse:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows that Hillary Clinton’s national polling lead has collapsed. Before the Iowa caucuses, Clinton held a seventeen-point lead over Barack Obama. Today, that lead is down to four percentage points in a survey with a four-point margin of sampling error.

In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, it’s now Clinton 33%, Barack Obama 29% and John Edwards 20% (see recent daily numbers). Next update Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. Eastern. data suggests that Obama may now be considered the frontrunner for the nomination.

In New Hampshire, Monday’s tracking update shows Obama retaining his double digit lead over Clinton. Obama’s victory has triggered a political earthquake, but it would be foolish to assume that he will cruise to the nomination unchallenged by the formidable Clinton campaign team.

In the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination, it’s Huckabee 20% McCain 19%, Rudy Giuliani 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, and Fred Thompson at 11%. Ron Paul attracts 3% support (see recent daily numbers). A Rasmussen Reports analysis suggests that if McCain wins in New Hampshire, the race will finally have a clear frontrunner.

However, a McCain victory in the Granite State is far from assured. New polling data released Monday shows McCain’s lead over Romney in New Hampshire. own to a statistically insignificant one-point lead. Final polling data for New Hampshire will be released Tuesday morning.