Thursday, January 31, 2008

Slimy dick gets it wrong

AFTER the Florida primary, John McCain is the clear front-runner in the Republican primaries, the first we've had since Rudy Giuliani vacated the role.

Underscoring his victory is a fascinating fact newly evident, now that we have had a Republican primary in a state which did not permit Independents to participate: The GOP primary electorate isn't very conservative.

Asked how they'd characterize their own ideology, only 27 percent of Florida GOP voters said they were "very conservative." They backed Mitt Romney by 44 percent to 20 percent. Another 34 percent said they were "somewhat conservative," and they broke even between Romney and McCain 33-32.

A further 38 percent said they were "moderate" or "liberal" - and they backed McCain by 44-22.

So it is not so much that McCain converted conservatives, but that Romney ran out of them - there weren't enough of them to give him the Florida delegation.

If you add the numbers up you get 61% conservative (either "very" or "somewhat"). That adds up to a conservative party in my book.

Four factors cost Romney the Florida primary.

1. McCain's status as a war hero attracted many votes from active duty military and veterans in a state with a large military presence.

2. McCain is the oldest person in the race and this makes him attractive to the elderly and Florida has a surplus of geezers.

3. Many of those Florida geezers are retired Northeasterners who belong to the "country club - blue blood" wing of the Republican Party and tend to be moderate to liberal (they would register as Democrats except that blacks and browns tend to be Democrats). They dislike conservatives and especially Evangelicals and see McCain as their chance to take back the party and get rid of all those nasty Reagan worshiping, Bible thumping neanderthals.

4. Romney is a Mormon and a small but significant number of people can't get past that.

Well, there is a fifth factor as well. Huckabee is in the race siphoning off anti-McCain votes. This is the result of some kind of corrupt backroom deal between Elmer and Queeg in which Elmer gets some kind of job in the McCain administration, Queeg gets the White House (and Satan gets Huckabee's immortal soul - but that's a topic for another post).