Monday, February 11, 2008

Al Qaeda in tatters


Al-Qaeda in Iraq faces an “extraordinary crisis”. Last year's mass defection of ordinary Sunnis from al-Qaeda to the US military “created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight”. The terrorist group's security structure suffered “total collapse”.

These are the words not of al-Qaeda's enemies but of one of its own leaders in Anbar province — once the group's stronghold. They were set down last summer in a 39-page letter seized during a US raid on an al-Qaeda base near Samarra in November.

The US military released extracts from that letter yesterday along with a second seized in another November raid that is almost as startling.

That second document is a bitter 16-page testament written last October by a local al-Qaeda leader near Balad, north of Baghdad. “I am Abu-Tariq, emir of the al-Layin and al-Mashahdah sector,” the author begins. He goes on to describe how his force of 600 shrank to fewer than 20.

“We were mistreated, cheated and betrayed by some of our brothers,” he says. “Those people were nothing but hypocrites, liars and traitors and were waiting for the right moment to switch sides with whoever pays them most.”

Assuming the two documents are authentic — and the US military insists that they are — they provide a rare insight into an organisation thrown into turmoil by the rise of the Awakening movement. More than 80,000 Sunnis have joined the tribal groups of “concerned local citizens” [CLCs] that have helped to eject al-Qaeda from swaths of western and northern Iraq, including much of Baghdad.

[. . .]

The Anbar letter conceded that the “crusaders” — Americans — had gained the upper hand by persuading ordinary Sunnis that al-Qaeda was responsible for their suffering and by exploiting their poverty to entice them into the security forces. Al-Qaeda's “Islamic State of Iraq is faced with an extraordinary crisis, especially in al-Anbar”, the unnamed emir admitted.
In an apparent reference to al-Qaeda's brutal tactics, he said of the Americans and their Sunni allies: “We helped them to unite against us . . . The Americans and the apostates launched their campaigns against us and we found ourselves in a circle not being able to move, organise or conduct our operations.”

He said of the loss of Anbar province: “This created weakness and psychological defeat. This also created panic, fear and the unwillingness to fight. The morale of the fighters went down . . . There was a total collapse in the security structure of the organisation.” The emir complained that the supply of foreign fighters had dwindled and that they found it increasingly hard to operate inside Iraq because they could not blend in. Foreign suicide bombers determined to kill “not less than 20 or 30 infidels” grew disillusioned because they were kept hanging about and only given small operations. Some gave up and went home.

[. . .]

Rear-Admiral Gregory Smith, the US military spokesman in Baghdad, called Abu-Tariq's testament a “woe-is-me kind of document”. It calls the Sunnis who switched sides a “cancer in the body of al-Jihad movement”, and declares: “We should have no mercy on them.”

The author lists those who have made off with al-Qaeda weapons or money, describes the group's arsenal, including C5 rockets, which are used against helicopters, and records the fate of the battalions under his command.

Most of the first battalion's fighters “betrayed us and joined al-Sahwah [the Awakening]”, he says. The leader of the second ran away and all but two of its 300 fighters joined the Awakening. The activities of the third were “frozen due to their present conditions”. Of the fourth he writes: “Most of its members are scoundrels, sectarians, non-believers”.

He lists 38 people still working for him but beside five names he has written comments like “We have not seen him for twenty days” or “left us a week ago”. He concludes, wistfully: “And that is the number of fighters left in my sector.”


What does Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi have to say about American success in Iraq:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said twice Sunday that Iraq “is a failure,” adding that President Bush’s troop surge has “not produced the desired effect.”
The last refuge of the moonbat America hating anti-war movement (otherwise known as the Democrat Party) is going to be that the surge has failed to produce political reconciliation in Iraq. That there has been undeniable progress will be ignored and the fact that perfection has not been achieved will be trumpeted as the reason we must cut and run.
Never mind that fact that the goal of a complete political solution in so short a span of time was never realistic. After all the biggest question is how much autonomy will the regional governments have versus the central government. You know, "states rights" the question which America argued about for a hundred years then fought a civil war over and then resumed arguing about and is still vexing us today.
If the United States of America can't manage to get all the "I's" dotted and "T's" crossed in over 200 years why does anyone think that Iraq can do it in two?
Every significant indication is that the people of Iraq are tired of the jihadists and desire stability and peace. They have begun to think of themselves as Iraqi first rather than Shiite, Sunni or Kurd, at least as regards the public and secular part of their lives. Since the government of Iraq is democratically elected this feeling of the people will work its way upward over the course of election cycles. All we have to do is keep grinding down al Qaeda while continuing to train up native Iraqi security forces and we will likely get a better outcome than even the optimists were expecting.