Saturday, February 23, 2008

In answer to your question

A reader named Dave responded to my post about the recent successful shoot down of the malfunctioning satellite with these questions:


How many months was the satellite in orbit? How much time did they have to calculate where it would be at 10:26 p.m. EST? You won't get that with an ICBM.

I think everyone would love for there to be a magic missile shield covering the U.S. The question is how much are you willing to pay for it, when our country is already trillions of dollars in debt?

No one is going to launch nukes at us because they fear retaliation. The loonies who would set off a nuke on U.S. soil don't have the missile tech to do so. They may carry in a device, but the incredibly over budget star wars program can't stop that.

Do you have any tangible reasons why you consider Reagan a good president?

Taking your points in order:

1. To calculate an intercept of a ballistic missile all you need is the current position of the missile, the speed of the missile, the direction the missile is traveling and the exact location of your interceptor relative to the missile you want to shoot down. Well you also need all the data about the performance of your interceptor, but you will have that because you built it.

As for the satellite that was shot down you imply that because it was in orbit for some time that it was possible to know its exact location with a precision not possible with an ICBM. This is not true. Because the satellite was in a low orbit which was unstable and degrading it was interacting with the upper reached of the atmosphere and experiencing changes of course and speed which could not be predicted with precision. This made it at least as hard to target as a re-entering warhead.

2. I am willing to pay whatever it costs. If you are worried about the expense there are several things that can be done to increase the amount of cash available to the government. Since even illegal aliens who work consume more in government services than they pay in taxes increasing our efforts to catch and deport them as well as encouraging them to self-deport by making it so uncomfortable that they choose to leave would free up a substantial amount of money.

Another way to generate large amounts of money for the government would be to eliminate the capital gains tax. It is a well known fact that if you raise the price of something you will get less of it and if you lower the price you will get more of it. When you tax something you increase the cost of it and when you lower or remove the tax on something you reduce the cost of it. The capital gains tax is a tax on investment and therefore its effect is to reduce the amount of investment. Remove the tax and you will stimulate investment which will increase business activity. More jobs will be created which will drive up wages as firms compete for workers (this increase in wages will be even more pronounced if illegal aliens are not here to drive down wages).

3. I hate to tell you this but Iran and North Korea are both working on the ability to put satellites in orbit and if you can do that you can deliver a warhead to any point on the planet. Now North Korea might be deterred by threat of retaliation, unless little Kim saw his hold on power slipping away. If he knew that he was going to be stood up against a wall and shot by the rebels in a few hours anyway he just might be crazy enough to launch an ICBM at the US just as a way of getting even with the world.

And what about Iran? That nation is run by people who believe that the Hidden Imam will only return at a time of apocalyptic crisis. The kind of crisis which they would face if they were staring at nuclear retaliation after they just launched a nuke at Tel Aviv or Los Angeles. Do you really want to bet on the sanity and restraint of men who believe that the Ayatollah Khomeini was the greatest man to live since Mohammad?

Then there's the fact that an effective missile shield would serve as a significant deterrent against China's territorial ambitions. In addition to wanting to end the independence of Taiwan they also lay claim to the Spratley Islands which are actually part of the Philippines (there is oil there). The US has an interest in keeping both of these things from happening. China has been rattling its saber over these issues with one of their top generals asking if the US would be willing to lose major cities on the west coast as the price of stopping China. An effective ABM system would make these threats hollow and encourage China to pull in its horns, for at least the next few years.

4. Ronald Reagan's greatest achievements as president are:

I. The fall of the Berlin Wall and the dissolution of the Soviet empire. This was the outcome of his abandonment of the policy of containment of communism and his decision to take the offensive and attempt to roll back communism. Reagan's refusal to bargain away SDI was the final straw which broke the Soviet camel's back. The Soviets knew that the US had both the money and the technical know-how to build an effective ABM system if they only had the will to do so. They knew that their own rotten system could not produce either the financial resources or the technical ability to counter the US and they knew that Reagan had the will to follow through with his plans so they folded.

II. The longest period of economic expansion in at least the 20th century, a boom which we are still feeling the effects of. Reagan knew that massive cuts in the marginal income tax rates would free up vast sums of money from non productive tax shelters and transfer it into productive investments in business. This generated an explosion of economic activity which swelled government revenues higher than they had ever been before. This also, and more importantly, caused the average citizen to have higher wages and made it possible for the working class to begin saving and investing.