Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Now this is interesting

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama surged to a big lead over Hillary Clinton in California hours before "Super Tuesday" voting began in 24 states, according to a Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll released on Tuesday.

In the Republican race, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney held a 7-point advantage on Arizona Sen. John McCain in California, while McCain added to commanding double-digit leads in New York and New Jersey.

On a sprawling day of coast-to-coast voting, the biggest ever in a U.S. primary race, the U.S. presidential contenders in both parties were fighting to win a huge cache of delegates to this summer's nominating conventions.

[. . .]

In the Republican race, Romney maintained a stable 40 percent to 33 percent lead on McCain in California, fueled by heavy support in the southern part of the state and among self-described conservatives. The margin of error was 3.4 percentage points.

There is no question that crazy John McCain will have a good day today. He will win most of the contests and take home most of the delegates. However less than half the Republican delegates are up for grabs today and most of the liberal Northeast where the liberal McCain will have most of his liberal support is voting today and will not be a factor in how the rest of the race shapes up.

If Romney can add California to his expected wins in Utah and Massachusetts and possibly a surprise pickup in Georgia he will remain viable. This could very will give hope to conservatives in other states that McCain is not unstoppable. If the rest of the nation's real Republicans rally around Romney in the states which have yet to vote it is not just possible but likely that the McCain candidacy can be derailed.