I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend’s victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary’s inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.
Hillary’s results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination.
Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.
March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas’ open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).
And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.
And don’t bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.
Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.
I admit that my reading of the situation is exactly like that of slimy dick. However I still can't shake the feeling that the Clinton Machine will still figure out a way to cheat and put Hillary over the top.
I know the super delegates are not bound to vote for the winner of the primary in their state but many of them are elected officials and they will be under pressure to vote the same way the people in their district voted but don't underestimate the power of blackmail. Some Republicans certainly have a few contributions from crooked lobbyists and the occasional mistress on the side but Democrats are likely to have dirty money from Chinese arms merchants, nuclear smugglers and genocidal Third World dictators and as for sexual misconduct just think - men, women, children, household pets, barnyard animals and inanimate objects.
Plenty of skeletons for the Clinton team of private investigators to root out of the dim party's collective closet and you have to know that they have been hard at work since before the first primary vote was cast.
But maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the Clinton Machine is all reputation and no reality. Perhaps there is no vast database of information which can be used to blackmail Hillary's way to power. And as for all the rewards she can pass out to buy a simulation of loyalty if she isn't going to be president she won't have the power to pass out the goodies.
People who rule by bribery and intimidation are never loved by the people who are caught within the grip of their iron fist. Usually if they see a way out they'll take it and if that way lies across the broken body of their former tormentor so much the better. It is only those Democrat voters who see their entire life as one long and easy gravy train of government handouts who love Hillary because they see her as the one best able to keep the money spigot open wide.
This is why she always captures the majority of the unmarried female white and black trash baby factories who rely on government checks instead of a husband. This is also why she is getting the vote of "immigrants and Latinos" as Morris puts it. These new 21st century immigrants are not the stalwart masses who poured through Ellis Island. Men and women who came here looking for a better life and who expected to work hard and did not even dream of getting handouts from the State. No the gleaming torch of liberty which once cast its warmth and light into the hearts of millions of the worlds "huddled masses yearning to breath free" and served as a beacon drawing them to the land of liberty and opportunity has morphed into a great shining teat from which the world's worthless can suckle a lifetime's sustenance at the expense of the American taxpayer.
But the "useless eater" wing of the Democrat party isn't yet large enough to give the Queen of the Welfare State the margin of victory over the rest of the party which has decided to back B. Hussein Obama - a man who appeals to not terribly smart people who nevertheless have jobs.
When the people upon whom a tyrant has been depending to support his or her power stop being afraid of the tyrant the tyrant's lifespan gets much shorter. People do not so much remember the favors the tyrant has given them as the way they had to crawl to get those favors. A lot of people who Hillary thought she could depend upon have begun to remember how the Clinton administration cost the Democrat party control of both the House and Senate and how every Democrat politician that Bill campaigns for seems to lose and how the Clinton Library sucked up tens of millions of dollars of contributions that could have gone to electing Democrats to office and how every Clinton scandal required them to go out before the public and lie and defend the indefensible.
And they are looking anew at Hillary's arrogant attitude of entitlement which has marked Mrs. Clinton's career. The way she expected the Democrat who had been planning to run for the Senate in New York to simply step aside and clear the way for her as a matter of right. The way she approached the presidential campaign as a Queen marching to her coronation rather than as a politician trying to earn elective office. They are considering the way Hillary treats those over whom she has power from the Travel Office employees who she tried to frame for felonies and have sent to federal prison (do you wonder why I compare her to Stalin) to the Secret Service bodyguards who she taught her daughter to refer to as "trained pigs" to the media figures she has bullied into submission to the members of her own party who she was planning to "demonize" if they dared to oppose any aspect of her socialized health care scheme.
Democrats are looking at all of this and then looking at the way Barack Obama has captured the imagination of such a large segment of the electorate. They are watching the way that he can go out and make a speech in which he says absolutely nothing of any substance and yet have the audience stand and weep in adoration at the way he says it.
They are looking at the way in which Obama has demolished Hillary's 30 point lead and won primary after primary and they are looking at the way the national head-to-head polls show him beating McCain and Hillary losing to McCain and they are waking up to the fact that Barack Hussein Obama could once and for all time free them from the Clinton yoke.
They are turning the idea over in their heads and beginning to whisper it to their closes friends. They are still somewhat timid with the idea but as it gains purchase and becomes the accepted and conventional wisdom in the Democrat party, that Hillary can't win and Obama can, you can expect to see one unholy hell of a feeding frenzy as everyone the Clintons have ever shat upon comes back to get in at least one kick before the Wicked Witch completely melts away.
And I'm going to enjoy the hell out of it. Just like I'm going to enjoy watching the press turn on John McCain and rip him apart like a pack of rabid hyenas as they prove that what they set up they can sure as hell tear down. Because McCain was never anything to them but a useful idiot, a tool they could use to damage the Republican party and the conservative movement. Now that they are totally head over heels in love with Obama and McCain is the last obstacle to Obama's march to the White House they will burn him to a crisp and throw his ashes in the sewer right next to his good friend Hillary's.
And on the day that Obama is sworn in as president I'll open a bottle of good wine and celebrate because even though he will suck as president he will at least have succeeded in cutting two malignant tumors out of the American body politic.
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
Slimy dick doesn't think Hillary can pull it off
Posted by Lemuel Calhoon at 8:21 AM
Labels: B. Hussein Obama, Campaign 2008, Mrs. Bill Clinton
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