Line up for the Rudy kool-aid

John Mcintyre handicaps Rudy's chances on the Real Clear Politics Blog:

There is an assumption by many that Giuliani is un-nominatable as a Republican for President given his less than conservative positions on many social issues. Charlie Cook summed up the conventional Washington wisdom on Giuliani's chances with his statement in the Washington Post several months ago that he'll "win the Tour de France before Rudy Giuliani wins the Republican nomination."

But the conventional wisdom on Giuliani's ability to capture the nomination is wrong. Not only can Giuliani win the GOP nomination, but as the Republican field sits today he has to be considered the favorite.

As Republicans look to their standard bearer in what will be a post-9/11 and post-George W. Bush world, the usual handicapping yard-sticks that may have worked in the '80's and 90's won't work this cycle.

Leadership is going to be the single most important issue to Republican voters and this is almost certainly Giuliani's strongest asset. As long as McCain remains Giuliani's chief rival for the nomination, Rudy will hold an advantage for the simple reason that conservatives like Rudy Giuliani and do not like John McCain. Leadership and the conservative animus toward McCain are why Giuliani has the edge.

It is entirely possible that Republicans will be so eager to win in '08 that they will hold their noses and vote for either McCain or Giuliani. It is even possible that they will want to win so badly that they will turn out in the primaries to vote for a liberal Republican who could very well do more long term harm to the Party than four years of Hillary Clinton would.

However the primaries are next year and that is forever in politics. I remain hopeful that a real conservative will step forward.

One thing. If you think Rudy is the cat's meow fine. Everyone has the right to their opinion, but please stop telling me how he is really a conservative. Tell me that he just might be the best that I can expect and I'll admit that you just might be right, but don't piss in my face and tell me that its raining.