Thursday, October 16, 2008

I voted

While I am not really a fan of early voting the opportunity to vote against Barack Obama and for the eventual presidency of Sarah Palin was too great to resist.

The line at the Board of Elections office was long, but moved quickly. The only people there whose vote I felt certain was going one way or another were the young black man in the Che t-shirt who I was sure was an Obama supporter and the uniformed Marine NCO from the local recruiting office who I was equally sure was a McCain/Palin man. Oh, there was also the woman with the developmentally disabled son who I would bet was there to vote for Sarah Palin and whatever guy was on the ticket with her.

The truth is that I have little doubt that the majority of people there were going to vote for McCain. As you drive around my county you notice the couple of Obama yard signs because they stand out so starkly against the sea of McCain/Palin signs.

I see the same thing in Eastern Tennessee in my travels there. This is one reason why I simply can't believe those polls which were showing Obama with a 10 point lead or more. And you shouldn't believe them either. When you look at the internals of those polls you see that the way that the Obama lead was obtained was by significantly over counting African-American voters and registered Democrats or by sampling registered voters instead of likely voters.

A fair sampling of likely voters has never given Obama more than a five point lead and the most credible polls have shown him with a less than four point advantage. In fact Drudge is reporting that Gallup is now showing Obama with a TWO POINT lead among likely voters, a number which is within the poll's margin of error.

The fact is that the efforts to get the truth about Obama out before the public are paying off. Rather than "backfiring" as the mainstream media had been claiming they have eroded Obama's support among undecided voters and independents.

With the race less than three weeks away people are looking hard at the candidates and the American public instinctively knows that the character of a candidate has an enormous amount to do with whether he will make a good president. They also know that a man is revealed by both the friends and enemies that he makes as he travels through life.

This scrutiny is causing people who thought that Obama might actually represent something new, some genuine hope and chance for change to turn from him in disgust.

I believe that this trend of turning away from Obama will continue until election day and see John McCain win with a 3.5 to 5 point margin of victory.

There it is in black and white. The Hillbilly White Trash election prediction. If I am wrong you may ridicule me but I don't think I am.