Economic warfare

From The Telegraph:

Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.

Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.

Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.

It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.

Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.

"Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.

He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.

"China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.

"China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar," he told China Daily.

It is an article of faith among libertarians that economic ties between nations make conflict between them far less likely, even impossible. The old saying is that borders which are crossed by commerce will not be crossed by soldiers. This would lead a libertarian economist to declare that China's threat is empty because China would lose the majority of the value of its investment in US dollars if it triggered a collapse of the dollar.

However the libertarian economists forget that a nation which is fighting a war makes very large investments into things which might very well be destroyed. Aircraft carriers and nuclear submarines are things which can and will be expended in the event of war.

Economists make the assumption that on one will waste a trillion dollar investment, but what if you have invested in a trillion dollar weapon?

The next war

From The Brussels Journal:

In an earlier essay [ Marc Huybrechts] I noted that the preponderant nature of war had been changing over the past half century or so, from international wars between states to civil wars within states. History does not suggest that this state of affairs will continue forever. Indeed, liberal democracy faces currently two major challenges: (A) the terrorism emanating from radical Islam and (B) the renewed rise of non-democratic great powers. The first threat is the more immediate one. But, it is the lesser of the two, because it originates in stagnant and backward societies that are largely living on the economic rent from natural resources and that pose no military threat to developed societies. However, their potential use of acquired weapons of mass destruction does present a serious and growing menace. Nevertheless, it is the second threat in the form of the return of authoritarian great powers (specifically China and Russia), that is likely to be the major threat to liberal democracy’s survival in the foreseeable future.

With all due respect to Mr. Huybrechts I disagree. Defeating single unitary nation states like China or Russia is much more straightforward than stateless terrorist organizations like al Qaeda. I do not say that it will be easy or cheap. But it will have the advantage of having a clear end-point. When China or Russia issues their unconditional surrender.

Too late for Europe? Probably.

In a post on today's Front Page Magazine Fjordman discusses the fact that there are signs that the European public may be waking up to the danger imposed by unassimilated Muslim immigrants making up ever higher percentages of their nations' populations. But then he makes these observations about the current leadership in Europe:

So, what to do next? What are we waiting for? For some decent leader to step forward, perhaps? Well, where is he, or she? During the appeasement of the late 1930s, Churchill was already there, ready to step in when called for. The problem is, I just can't see anyone of his stature now. Tony Blair? Apart from the Iraq war, absolutely everything he has done related to Islam, both in the UK and abroad, has been wrong. In some ways, he is a worse appeaser than Chamberlain ever was. I doubt Gordon Brown will be better. Chirac is a corrupt crook, de Villepain is a pompous, Eurabian clown with a Napoleon complex, Sarkozy isn't too bad, but not good enough, and France is in too much trouble of her own to do anything for the rest of Europe. Besides, it was France who created Eurabia in the first place. Count them out. Spain has forgotten everything of her past and has Zapatero, an appeasing Socialist weasel, as PM, brought to power by al-Qaeda. Italy recently ousted their right-wing government in favor of a Leftist, super-Eurocrat, Romano Prodi, as PM, and Communist ministers who want open doors for Muslims from North Africa to enter. Which actually leaves Germany's Angela Merkel as the least bad leader among the larger nations. But Ms. Merkel is no Thatcher, and certainly not a Churchill. Her support for the awful EU Constitution should be enough to discount her as a potential leader of a de-Eurabization of Europe. The only Western European leader in power with something resembling a spine is Anders Fogh Rasmussen in Denmark, but Denmark is too small to lead this. I hope we are waiting for a Churchill to step forward, but I sometimes fear we are waiting for Godot.

I believe that he is correct. In order for Europe to get the leadership which it needs to escape the trap which it finds itself its people will have to be willing to go to the polls and vote for candidates who their elites - in the academy, the entertainment industry, the news media, the church (what there still is of it), the labor unions, and government - tell them are racist, xenophobic, intolerant, stupid and fascist.

I frankly don't see the Europeans doing that. Not in large enough numbers to make a difference any way. The European "man in the street" is too addicted to various government subsidies to give them up for individualistic free-market capitalism. Europeans are also unlikely to embrace the kind of belief in serious Christianity which is the only thing that can counter the certitude offered by fundamentalist Islam (well Judaism could do it too, but does anyone see Europe converting any time soon).

There is a great deal to this article than the paragraph I quoted, go and read the rest.

Red China wants to play in the big leagues

China has been pushing ahead with construction of a mega-sized nuclear-powered aircraft carrier to be completed in 2020, according to a Chinese Communist Party's dossier.

A source close to Chinese military affairs said on March 27 that China has been promoting the construction of a 93,000-ton atomic-powered carrier under a plan titled the "085 Project." The nation also has a plan to build a 48,000-ton non-nuclear-powered carrier under the so-called "089 Project," added the source.

The source made such remarks based on government a dossier that reveals that China’s Central Military Commision recently approved the two projects. The dossier also contained specifications of the aircraft carriers.

[. . .]

Once the proposed Chinese carriers are deployed, the radius of the Chinese Navy’s range is expected to reach Guam, where a U.S. base is located. Thus, military experts are worried about China’s moves prompting an arms race in Northeast Asia.

The dossier said the construction of the nuclear-powered carrier will be completed in 2020. China State Shipbuiling Corp’s Jiangnan shipyard located on Changxing Island near Shanghai, will be responsible for its design and construction. The size is similar to former Soviet’s unfinished atomic-powered carrier Ulyanovsk, the dossier states. China reportedly secretly purchased the design of Ulyanovsk from Russia. When the nuclear-powered carrier is finished, China will own an aircraft carrier which is on par with the U.S.’s newest of such vessels, the 97,000-ton atomic-powered USS Ronald Reagan, which recently docked at Busan Port to participate in a joint exercise between the South Korean and U.S. militaries.

The Chinese may build a carrier which is "on par" with the Ronald Reagan and her sisters as far as size, but it will definitely not be their equivalent in capability, either the ship or the aircraft it will carry.

And when you factor in the soon to be deployed new generation of carriers (starting with the USS Gerald Ford) and the F-35 Lightening II fighters which it will carry the gap will open even more.

I'm afraid that the Chinese are just going to spend several tens of billions of dollars building great big floating targets for our gunners and naval aviators.

I can hardly wait for the show.

Hillary's skeletons

From Front Page Magazine:

It was an explosion nobody heard. And at more than 500 miles above the earth's surface, nobody could. But that January 11 outer-space collision -- a People's Republic of China medium-range, surface-to-air ballistic missile destroying one of its aging weather satellites -- ought to be a reminder of that country's military prowess, and how to some extent it obtained it, especially during the Nineties.

The Chinese government at first denied any intention to flex military muscle. Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao assured the press that his country "opposes the weaponization of space and any arms race." Yet several days later, Yao Yunzhu, a Chinese one-star general, speaking in flawless English at a World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, revealed different intentions. "Outer space is going to be weaponized in our lifetime," she said. If there's going to be a space superpower, "It will have company -- China."

Meanwhile, halfway around the world Senator Hillary Clinton announced on January 20 that she would be a candidate for president in 2008. The two events seemed unrelated -- on the surface. In fact, the evidence is persuasive that Mrs. Clinton, during her years as First Lady, knowingly facilitated the transfer of top U.S. military secrets by way of Chinese spies their network of military and financial influence-peddlers. What China got was technology. What she, her husband and their party got in return were campaign contributions and reignited political careers. Reporters ought to remind Hillary Clinton of three names above all others -- Charlie Trie, Johnny Huang and James Riady. Mrs. Clinton makes no mention of them in her post-White House memoir, Living History, nor does Bill Clinton cite them in his own memoir, My Life. There are, as one soon shall see, good reasons for their omissions.

Go read the rest and remember it when you vote.

China continues to arm

From The Washington Post:

BEIJING, March 5 -- China announced Sunday that it will increase military spending at a sharply higher rate this year, budgeting a rise of nearly 18 percent, and a senior U.S. official immediately called for clarity on the planned expenditures.

Deputy Secretary of State John D. Negroponte said at a news conference at the end of his maiden visit to Beijing in his new post that the Bush administration is dissatisfied with China's unwillingness to share such information. "We think it's important in our dialogue that we understand what China's plans and intentions are," he said.

Did FDR share that kind of information with Germany and Japan? I didn't think so.

The sooner Washington wakes up and realizes that as far as China is conserned the US is enemy number one the better. China has already internalized the fact that they will one day engage in a military conflict with the US. That is unless we grow so weak that we will not dare challenge them.

Either way they intend to be the world's premier superpower and they will do anything they must do to achieve that goal.

Is anyone in Washington paying attention?

From The Washington Times:

China's military is engaged in a major buildup of submarines that includes five new strategic nuclear-missile boats and several advanced nuclear-powered attack submarines, according to the Office of Naval Intelligence.

The new nuclear-powered missile submarines (SSBNs), identified as Type 094s, will be outfitted with new 5,000-mile range JL-2 missiles that "will provide China with a modern and robust sea-based nuclear deterrent force," the ONI stated in report made up of written answers to questions on the Chinese submarine buildup.

[. . .]

The buildup is raising new concerns among senior Pentagon planners already worried by Beijing's broader strategic nuclear-forces buildup, which also includes several new long-range land-based nuclear missiles and a land-attack cruise missile similar to the Tomahawk.

"This is a troubling development," Richard Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military with the private International Assessment and Strategy Center, said of the submarine buildup.

The five missile submarines, each equipped with 12 JL-2 missiles, shows that China is working to achieve a force of 120 long-range nuclear missiles over the next decade, about half of them to be carried on the submarines, Mr. Fisher said. The other half would be the 60 land-based DF-31 missiles that current deployment rates will give China by then, he said.

The 120 missiles also could have multiple-warheads, since China is known to have acquired all the needed technology from the U.S. during the 1990s. [Thank you Bill fraking Clinton - LC]

[. . .]

Chinese Gen. Zhu Chenghu told reporters in 2005 that China would attack U.S. cities with nuclear weapons in response to any conventionally armed U.S. missile strikes against China during a conflict over Taiwan. Years earlier, Gen. Xiong Guangkai threatened to use nuclear weapons against Los Angeles if the U.S. helped Taiwan defend against a Chinese invasion of the island.

[. . .]

The new advances are part of China's efforts to bolster its anti-ship weapons to permit strikes at greater ranges from the Chinese coast than its current diesel-powered submarine force offers, the ONI said. China currently is upgrading its current force of about 55 attack submarines -- most of them easy-to-track diesel boats -- with more-advanced and harder-to-track vessels, including Russian-made Kilos, and its own Song- and Yuan-class submarines.

The Kilos are the quietest submarines in the world. They will make it very difficult for our aircraft carriers to operate in the waters around Taiwan.

A Song-class submarine surfaced undetected within five miles, well within firing range, of the aircraft carrier USS Kitty Hawk in October.

And if that didn't sound warning bells in the Pentagon then we need new admirals.

ONI also said that in addition to new destroyers, "by 2020, China is likely to operate an aircraft carrier, the initial unit of which may be the refurbished ex-Varyag, acquired from Ukraine in 2000, to further support SLOC protection."

Listen closely. China is the enemy. I know that the economic relationship we have with them is beneficial to US consumers and that the standard of living of the average Chinese citizen has gone up dramatically in recent years. However the behavior of the Chinese government indicates that their abandonment of economic Marxism did not come from any desire to liberalize their regime. It was, rather, a calculated decision geared toward bringing in as much hard currency as possible in order to purchase a dramatically expanded military capability.

A military capability which they intend to use to first establish hegemony in Asia then to challenge the US for dominance in the rest of the world.

The Chinese are building to a point where feel that they can engage in and win a war with the United States. This war will be fought on the sea and air with their new Navy, in cyberspace with attacks on the computer networks which everything from our banking system to our electrical power grid depend upon and on the economic front. The Chinese are holding nearly a trillion dollars of US debt which they believe could be used to crash the Western stock markets and destroy the value of the US dollar. They miscalculate in this as the debt would be repudiated in the event of war - you cannot expect folks who were communists up till a few years ago to get all the in and outs of capatalist economics, after all. But over all they have what appears to be an excellent plan.

I just hope we are comming up with an excellent counter plan.